Our world seems quite simple from the outside; you are successful because you work hard, and you fail because you are lazy. The protagonists in Freakonomics go about trying to find the hidden truths in this simplicity. They look at what drives people to act the way they do, get the jobs they have, and do as well as they do in school. In the discussion of their experimentation and statistics, they talk the about the effects of correlation and causation, if the two actually relate.
In order to understand the correlation and causation that is discussed in the film, we must first identify the sources of evidence that they protagonists rely on. In the first segment, names are discussed. Two experts contemplate if a name can really determine someone’s future. The one scholar says that no it is actually based on where you grow up. He does not use any specific evidence, but only his observations. He finds that African Americans tend to not be as successful because of the lack of education in their parents and the instability in their households with single parents. You could say that this is an “innovative” way of providing evidence, but the man really only gives us his word for it. On the other hand, the other man says yes, your name does affect your future. He sent out the same amount of resumes for both a man named Tyrone, and a man named Jake. In his experiment, Jake ended up getting many more calls back, probably because of discrimination on Tyrone’s name. Tyrone would have needed five more weeks in order to get a job. This then proves that indeed your name affects your future. If you have a more unique name, people tend to associate it with a lower income family. This experiment presented a very interesting way of considering the effects of the name, since it was a real world experiment and people responded the way they did subconsciously.
Another experiment conducted was the one with incentives. When people have incentives, maybe they do indeed work harder to succeed. They went into a school and gave each kid who got grades C or above by the end of each month 50 dollars. The two protagonists of the documentary were an African American kid and a Caucasian kid. The Caucasian kid never ended up stepping up his grades; at first he seemed intrigued but let them slip away. Unlike the Caucasian boy, the African American boy’s interest was sparked. He believed that with that money, he could achieve happiness. Therefore he tried harder, did his work, and received 50 dollars by the end of the month. In addition to the findings that yes, sometimes incentives can help, they focused a lot on the parents’ involvement. With the support and encouragement of the parents, the kids also seemed to strive a little more. This experimental was quite innovative; who would have thought children could produce such results. It may have not given a direct result, as one kid did succeed and the other did not, but it showed how the person’s environment affected them too.
Statistics were also highly touched upon as evidence in Freakonomics. In the segment about sumo wrestling, they looked at the art of corruption. They took the statistics of the sumo wrestlers and examined who won and who did not in each match. In order to come to the top ranks of sumo wrestling, you need to win eight games. They found that in games when it was someone who had gone 7:3 against someone 8:2, the 8:2 person would let the 7:3 person win, because the first person was already insured the spot in the higher ranks of the championship. This is a radical idea because the art of sumo wrestling is looked upon as completely pure. Instead of using trust as evidence of purity in the sport, the Freakonomics experts looked at statistics and concluded their results. In addition, they also interviewed a couple of the wrestlers, but they did not want to appear in the movie for fear of being banned.
Crime has gone down in past years and the Freakonomics experts conclude that it is because of the legalization of abortion. Again statistics were used in this analysis. They found that in the 1980s, crime rates were at an all high. But then, once abortion was legalized, they began to drop rapidly; first in those states where abortion was initially legalized. They figured that all of the unwanted children would then not be born, and the children were not longer brought into society. Unwanted children tend to be those raised the least effectively, causing them to act out and cause crimes. But without this, crime began to decrease according to the statistical findings of the experts. Nobody would have found this relationship, it is a completely original idea found through statistics.
After looking at their evidence tactics, we can now discuss their interpretations of correlation and causation. In the beginning of the movie, they give an example from the 1900s when polio was at an all time high. Scientists noticed that in the summer was when people tended to catch polio most. They then saw that in the summer ice cream was also sold and consumed at the highest rates. Therefore they believed that ice cream was the cause of polio. Obviously as later found out, it was not, proving that correlation does not mean causation. After making this point, they do indeed in the first experiment show that correlation is causation. The name experiment, which was already mentioned before with the resumes, proves the relationship between someone’s name and their success. The more “white” name got many more job offers than the typical “black” name. Therefore the experts contradict themselves: first they show an example where correlation and causation do not relate, but then in their next example apparently they do. The name someone has causes them to succeed or not. Then they do the test with the incentives. They admit that the parents probably have a lot to do with a child’s success in school, not only what they will receive (incentives). The African American boy’s mom was tough on her child, but the Caucasian boy’s mom talked the talk, but we did not actually see her crack down on her son. Therefore they again change their minds and say well, incentives may cause someone to do better, but it is not the only factor. Instead of focusing on either correlation is causation or it is not, they show that sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. This does not seem like a very strong conclusion.
Freakonomics posed some interesting ideas, but it was not quite as effective in exposing the “hidden in plain sight” truths. The truths that they discussed were not necessarily in plain sight, they were things that you had to dig a lot deeper for. And these truths are also their own opinions, yes they do have numerical evidence, but who is to say there is not another cause too? They believe that they have found the one right answer, but for things like success, is it really possible for there to only be one answer? The world’s simplicity is actually quite complex for each individual. Their past, their family their surroundings, everything is different for each person. It is impossible that one rule applies to all of them. The movie does indeed suggest new innovative ideas, such as the impact of abortion laws on crimes rates, but these hidden truths are not necessarily universal. Theirs ideas though are not worthless, they ask interesting questions, but they experimenters themselves are too limited.
The movie does indeed relate to our food unit. Again the argument that your name does not determine your future made by the first scholar can be applied here. He believes that it is not your name, but your family and background that cause your success. With a broken household it is much harder to succeed according to him. He also associates a broken household with less income. In our food unit we have seen that those with a lower income tend to eat an unhealthier diet. Without the right nutrition, people become weak, overweight: simply unhealthy. This then too can affect somebody’s success. Nobody wants to hire an unfit person for hard labor; they are too unreliable. It would make much more sense for the employer to hire someone fit and able. Therefore your health can also affect your success; people want a healthy worker. When health is directly related to the consumption of food, we see that families eat differently based on their income, just as the man suggests the person’s name differs because of their background. Therefore income can affect food, which affects health, which can in turn also affect success.